Shoot, this just jumped up from -210. Other than Marshon Lattimore, the Saints are about as healthy as they have been all year. Maybe Desmond Ridder is the next Jalen Hurts, but asking a third-round rookie QB to win his first career start on the road is a lot. I do like Ridder over 23.5 rushing yards, though. After starting the season 6-0 ATS, the Falcons are 1-6 ATS over their past seven contests and 0-4 ATS over their previous four as underdogs. I'm taking the spread out of play because I don't trust Andy Dalton that much.

The Desmond Ridder Era begins in Atlanta, and he definitely was a threat to run at the University of Cincinnati. In the preseason, he had eight carries for 58 yards. He may struggle to throw today so I'd expect him to take off a handful of times. When Atlanta faced New Orleans in Week 1, Marcus Mariota had 72 yards on 12 carries. Don't expect that for Ridder but no reason he can't do about half.

The Falcons rank higher in overall DVOA than the Saints (16th to 22nd), Atlanta has the better overall record and the better ATS mark , the first meeting between these teams was decided by a point … and now New Orleans is favored by four. Part of the reason is that rookie Desmond Ridder is making his first start, but that’s probably not a bad thing. The Falcons can run it; what they haven’t been able to do is throw. So it’s unlikely they’ll see much downgrade in that area, but it’s entirely possible they’ll get an uptick, especially with the Saints not having tape on Ridder to prepare. Even if there's no uptick, this is still a division game between two fairly even teams. Grab the four points.

The Saints have faced five difficult defenses in a row and now they get to play the Falcons, who rank 28th in yards per play allowed (5.8). Atlanta rookie QB Desmond Ridder is an exciting prospect who showed flashes in the preseason. But making his first start on the road in the Caesars Superdome? Mistakes should follow: He led the NFL in the preseason in turnover-worthy play percentage under pressure. Saints top corner Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) could return Sunday after missing eight straight games. Lay the points.

In their bye week, the Falcons looked to the future and moved from veteran QB Marcus Mariotta to rookie Desmond Ridder. In their bye week, the Saints chose to stick with ultra-veteran Andy Dalton, which hints that Jameis Winston is not part of their future. The past two Atlanta games have stopped at 32 and 35 points. Five of the last half-dozen for New Orleans have landed below this total -- four of them much lower (24, 30, 13, 33). With Ridder learning the ropes and Dalton creeping toward retirement, this game has "30s" written all over it.

The Falcons are turning to Desmond Ridder, and this type of QB change for performance reasons has a better chance of being neutral or positive than negative. They'll also have two weeks to integrate new wrinkles into the offense, which makes things tougher on preparation for the Saints defense. New Orleans has the lowest interception rate in the league, so this could be a sneakily good spot for Ridder's debut, even on the road. The Saints offense has been pretty ugly recently but has also faced the Ravens, Steelers, Rams, 49ers and Bucs in the last five games; they should have more success here. Both teams have been reliable Unders lately thanks to tougher defensive matchups, giving us a juicy number.